Here’s a quick recap:
Fact: Renewables and grid-scale storage are now fully cost-competitive with fossil fuels.
Fact: The oil and gas industries are in freefall, with investors withdrawing and prices cratering.
Fact: The above trends were true even before the pandemic hit, but the pandemic has accelerated them.
Fact: Solar, wind and hydropower provided 85.7% of new U.S. electric generating capacity during the first two months of 2020 – notably more than natural gas.
Fact: According to ISO-New England, the operator of our region’s power grid, “About 95% of resources currently proposed for the region are grid-scale wind, solar, and battery projects.”
You might almost conclude that Massachusetts, Connecticut and other New England states are finally ready to embrace that elusive clean energy future that, until now, always seemed just over the horizon.
Not so fast. True, these developments have set the stage for the next wave of change. Yet many hard battles must still be fought and won – and victory is by no means assured. The fossil fuel industry may be in decline, but it won’t retreat without a prolonged and vicious fight – and without the full weight of public sector intervention. Just look how long it took to get lead out of gasoline: The truly horrific health impacts were well known by the 1960s, but it took aggressive governmental regulation to start phasing the lead out in 1973. Lead wasn’t fully banned until 1996. Inertia, vested interest, installed infrastructure and ingrained habits made the transition slow, painful and difficult.
As we mark the 50th Anniversary of Earth Day, we can see that, although real progress has been made, we continue to face an immense challenge. Even in decline – even in the face of the facts – the fossil fuel industry will use all of its considerable wealth and power to slow the transition to a region, and a world, powered clean, affordable, renewable energy.
Last week, Senator Ed Markey explained in an Environmental League of Massachusetts webinar that the oil and gas industry is already using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to argue for an enormous federal bailout package – and that such a bailout could prop up an industry that was already teetering well before the pandemic even started. At the same time, Markey warns, the fossil fuel industry is working hard to use tax codes and regulatory structures at the state and federal levels to block clean energy while favoring established oil and gas technology in every way possible.
The entire webinar is worth a listen and it’s a sobering reminder that (in the words made famous by Winston Churchill), “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”